Age structure

In 2021, for every 100 persons of working age there were 54 children or older people. The dependency ratio was highest in some African countries and in Afghanistan. In all these cases, the high ratios were a result of a very high child dependency. In Africa as a whole, the child dependency ratio alone was 72 per cent. By contrast, the lowest dependency ratios were found on the Arabian Peninsula and in the Caribbean. Several developed economies, most notably Japan, show rising dependency ratios due to increasing old-age dependency.

Globally, 65 per cent of people were of working age in 2021. Fifty years ago, this number was 57 per cent. The marked change is that the proportion of children has decreased from 38 per cent in 1971 to 25 per cent while the proportion of older persons has increased from 5 to 10 per cent. People above the age of 64 are projected to make up 16 per cent of the global population by 2050.

In most economies, the age structure has seen a trajectory over time, where dependency ratios first decrease, due to shrinking proportions of children, and later increase, as more people reach an age of over 64.

In most regions of the world, the bulk of the dependency ratio decrease has already taken place, and further decreases in the child dependency ratio are projected to be more than offset by increases in the old-age dependency ratio. In Africa, however, the decline of the dependency ratio is expected to continue beyond 2050. By 2050, the dependency ratio in Africa is projected to fall to 60 per cent from 78 per cent in 2021. In developed economies, dependency ratios are already increasing and are projected to reach 73 per cent by 2050.