Prices


Map 1. Annual growth of consumer prices, 2022
(Percentage)

Inflation worldwide

In 2022, growth of the world’s consumer prices was the fastest it has ever been in the twenty-first century. Inflation was above 100 per cent in Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Lebanon and Sudan. Another 44 economies recorded inflation of over 12 per cent. Only South Sudan experienced deflation. Developing economies generally experienced higher growth in consumer prices than developed economies. However, relatively low inflation in China brought the aggregate for developing economies closer to that for developed economies.

Trends in exchange rates

From 2021 to 2022, the yuan, the pound sterling, the euro and the yen depreciated against the United States dollar, at rates of 17 per cent for the yen, 11 per cent for the euro, 10 per cent for the pound sterling and 4 per cent for the yuan. The appreciation of the dollar against these currencies in 2022 marks the continuation of a ten-year trend.

Figure 1. Exchange rates against the United States dollar
(Annual average)

The commodity price index rose sharply, led by fuel prices

Figure 2. UNCTAD Commodity Price Index
(2015=100)

Commodity prices increased 40 per cent in 2022, adding to a sharp rise of the UNCTAD Commodity Price Index (UCPI) in 2021 and leading to a surpassing of all highs recorded since 1995. Fuel prices, rising by 64 per cent, accounted for most of the increase in the overall index. Excluding fuels, prices rose by only 1.6 per cent, and the sub-index approached its previous peak in 2011.

Prices of minerals, ores and non-precious metals remained high compared to the last ten years, despite the 5 per cent drop in 2022.

Commodity prices changed direction by the beginning of 2023

Looking at infra-annual trends, from March to August 2022, fuel prices were around double their value 12 months earlier. They then depreciated and, by the beginning of 2023, no longer recorded positive year-on-year growth. By August 2023, they were 43 per cent lower than in the previous year.

Prices of other commodities also changed from a positive to a negative annual trend during 2022. Food prices showed relatively strong year-on-year growth in the first and second quarters of 2022, yet by March 2023 growth had turned negative (-15 per cent). By contrast, year-on-year growth in prices of minerals, ores and metals turned from negative (-16 per cent) into positive (9 per cent) between July 2022 and July 2023 and slightly dipped down in August (to 4 per cent year-on-year).

Figure 3. Year-on-year growth of prices by commodity group
(Percentage)

Note: Percentage change of UCPI sub-indices, compared to the same month in the previous year.

Concepts and definitions

Changes in consumer prices are measured by the consumer price index (CPI), which depicts the price of a basket of consumer goods and services representing average consumption by private households during a year, relative to the base year 2010.

The UNCTAD Commodity Price Index (UCPI) measures the average price, in United States dollars, of main primary commodities exported by developing economies relative to the base year 2015. The weights used in the calculation of the average price represent the shares of commodity groups in developing economies’ total commodity exports observed over three years from 2014 to 2016. The overall index is decomposed into sub-indices displaying the price movements of individual commodity groups. The basket of the UCPI was entirely overhauled in 2018. For details, see Calculation methods and -—
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Summary tables

Table 1. Consumer prices by group of economies
Note: Venezuela is not considered.

    Table 2. Exchange rate and consumer prices among main exporting economies
    (Percentage)
      Table 3. Price indices of selected primary commodities
      (2015=100)
        Table 4. Monthly price indices by main commodity groups
        (2015=100)

          References

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